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Abstract: This discussion presents a formulation for a computational version that integrates socio-cultural dynamics through kinetic activities in a counterinsurgency environment. We emphasis on the neighborhood population, the key to resolving any type of insurgency. We describe its structure relationships, which us express together networks based upon social roles, values, and power differentials, and also as emergent groups of various types. We explain social dynamics which are conditioned through a member the the neighborhood population’s family member deprivation, stance, and also risk attitude. The expression that the structural relationships with the social dynamics allows us to account because that ambiguities in the counterinsurgency setting such together the accidental guerrilla, and also groups which go dormant however remain in the corporate memory. We present patron-client relationships to account for the importance of picking an initial point of distribution of sources to a local population, and also emergence of alternative structures that legitimacy.


The U.S. Department of Defense has long supplied computational models to support armed forces planning at every echelons – strategic, operational and tactical. Since Cold war planning scenarios suspect the likelihood of strike on the U.S. To be one (a certainty), those scenarios were concentrated on either the promulgation of an assault or top top the solution to or the mitigation the one. Evaluation of the setting thus focused on kinetic aspects of an engagement. Advancements in the evaluation of social environments emerged separately native such army planning. In fact, until recently, the trouble focus for the breakthrough of society simulations has been on private or civil sector troubles such as the practice of social capital through society networks, the modeling that crowds, and also the modeling the the behavior of that company or various other organizations.

This paper presents an initiative to combine analyses of social and also kinetic elements of a particular form of armed forces engagement with a description of ours formulation for a counterinsurgency (COIN) model. We will first introduce summary the principles we feel are most salient to COIN warfare in this modeling context. We then overview our specific an obstacle problem, which focuses on the interaction of kinetic and sociocultural environments. The discussion then moves to the formulation itself. We explain our actors, and their relations through sets of structure relationships. These relationships room expressed together networks based on social roles, values, and also power differentials, and also as emergent teams of various types. We additionally describe vital social dynamics, conditioned through three main factors: exactly how much a particular member of the local populace cares around his specific situation, which we parse together an expression the his sense of loved one deprivation; whom he blames for his situation, which we treat as his stance; and also what species of actions the is willing to take, which we express as his threat attitude. 

The actors, relationships, and also social dynamics we define are able to express vital dimensions of a COIN environment. We can see the introduction of, among others, the opportunistic insurgent (or counter-insurgent) that fights without commitment come an ideology system cause, defined recently together the ‘accidental guerrilla.’<1> This, in turn, leads to a ‘good man by day, bad guy through night’ phenomenon which we can also accommodate. The dynamics of our emergent groups enable us to take care of an ideology system or other team which go dormant but remains in the that company memory, possibly to be revitalized at some later on time. Finally, we introduce a measurement we think to be novel in COIN computational analyses: that of the patron-client network. This network maps the flow of resources from teams exogenous to the local populace into that population, with the accompanying emergence of power differentials and new power structures. We illustrate the innate (and probably necessary) tension between these vertical networks and also the horizontal networks the arise native homophily (connections based on similarity or ‘like-ness’). Most importantly, patron-client networks deserve to take on facets of legitimacy comparable to those that a much more classic government regime, together patrons deserve to generate solidarity based upon trust that offers historical depth to the relationship. This solidarity is based upon the same kind of trust and also expectation that fairness that underlies legitimacy.

This occupational builds top top a body of ahead work. This currently of research study started v collaborative research study undertaken with the 1st Marine Expeditionary pressure (I MEF) focusing on stability and support work (SASO). That attempted to create a populace of civilians and link their “feelings” about the united state with activities that influenced their traditional of living and also social ties.<2> This research continued with a MITRE inner research and breakthrough project the attempted to implement field Manual 3-24 together an entity-level discrete event simulation and also link the dynamics expressed in ~ it to the usage of improvised explosive devices (IEDs). This study was continued in collaboration with joint Improvised Explosive maker Defeat company (JIEDDO) and additionally included the college of Vermont, the college of Miami, and also the Santa Fe Institute among others, and generated or contributed to a good breath of research.<3> The research study team included, among others, one anthropologist, computer system scientists, a computational social scientist, one agent-based modeler, and also a former Marine with activity duty endure in the middle East. The an easy focus that this last research is to understand the “ground truth” situation too as possible through cautious data evaluation so that us can produce the minimally enough model formulation to catch the real civilization dynamics and also create an to work level sandbox for choice analysis. In what follows we explain the current formulation for this suggest minimum specification<4>.

A focus on rarely often rare warfare

The U.S. Joining in COIN in the Middle east has adjusted the armed forces planning focus. The U.S. No much longer assumes a cohesive and also well-understood an inspiration to strike on the part of relatively plainly identified adversaries. In fact, in countless cases, that is the multiple and ever-changing motivations that a fragmented evil one to strike or take part in some kinetic activity against the U.S. That room of primary military interest. The U.S. Is interested in addressing the ambiguities that a COIN environment. To efficiently operate in a COIN environment, the U.S. Must understand our adversaries’ full spectrum of motivations and intent.

COIN is a form of irregular warfare (IW). IW is characterized by doctrine in the Irregular war Joint Operating ide (IW JOC) together “a violent struggle among state and non-state actors because that legitimacy and influence over the relevant populations.”<5> COIN doctrine claims that “he main objective of any type of COIN operation is to foster advance of efficient governance by a legitimate government.”<6> that is this battle for legitimacy the is the defining characteristic that IW – and also therefore of COIN. Due to the fact that legitimacy counts upon a voluntary (i.e. Un-coerced or unrewarded) act of submission to a regime<7> based on the population’s recognition of the regime’s moral authority, the emphasis of IW is not on control of region or heritage or the exercise of power, however for the ‘minds’ the the population. Because that this reason, the IW JOC version 2.0 argues that a rich understanding of the sociocultural atmosphere is a key ingredient because that success in COIN and other IW activities: “In order to maximize the possibility of success, the joint pressure must understand the population and operating environment, consisting of the complicated historical, political, socio-cultural, religious, economic and other reasons of violent conflict.”<8>

Kinetics tho play crucial role in a counterinsurgency fight, that course. Of perhaps greatest affect to U.S. Pressures in the current conflict in the Middle eastern has been the adversary’s usage of improvised explosive gadgets (IEDs). The U.S.’s initial responses to IEDs concentrated on finding and also disabling the devices. Army planners and also others soon realized that this to be a video game of catch-up which would be complicated to win. While no abandoning efforts in this area, U.S. Fist has increased to include initiatives to understand and disrupt the socio-technical processes that bring about the manufacture and also emplacement of IEDs – i.e., to include upstream activities in counter-IED analyses. Hence, an attention has occurred in computational social modeling to resolve not only the kinetic but likewise the non-kinetic elements of the IED problem.<9>

The an obstacle Problem

The complicated COIN operation environment defined by the IW JOC as referenced over is an substantial system with numerous interdependencies, externalities, and adaptive entities including both sociocultural and kinetic dynamics. Existing analytical tools and also techniques fail to reflect the interdependence in between the kinetic and also social dynamics<10>. Furthermore, interconnectivity and feedback among all the elements of socio-cultural equipment creates path dependent dynamics whereby the order of events results future states of the system.<11> This being the case, the many efficient way to understand the dynamics of a system this facility is come simulate it.<12> The many natural method to represent systems of this nature in a simulation is as an agent-based simulation wherein all entities and their interrelationships deserve to be clearly represented.<13> We emerged such a simulation the the kinetics the Samarra, a city in Iraq. The version was reported to have retrodictively represented alters in the impact of armed forces strategy on the kinetic activity in the area.<14> However, as American interest shifted come Afghanistan and we to be asked to relocate the applications target the the simulation and also its basic model, we found that return the version addressed certain aspects the kinetic activities an extremely well, the sociocultural dynamics to be incomplete and also could not account for the ar change. <15> We have actually thus developed and will explain here a formulation of an agent-based mechanism that addresses the intersection of the social and kinetic spaces in a share COIN scenario, shaped by a focus on (counter-) IED activity. We expression the challenge for this project as the development the a computational representation of the interdependence between kinetic and non-kinetic aspects in the COIN environment. as such, our version will need to include representations not only of adversarial and friendly forces, but also the civilian population, and additionally of the interactions among these three sets that actors. 

While the useful relevance because that this work certainly will initially be venues in Iraq and Afghanistan together these are of immediate worry for the U.S., our objective is no to especially replicate a specific environment or to have the ability to predict the habits of people in some particular space and time. This model is a strategy tool, no a tactical one. If we space successful, the model will assist planners reason about the difficulty at big and create scenarios that will increase the possibility room with i beg your pardon they may engage. 

The model Formulation

This project initially progressed from research study by Epstein<16> as well Findley and Young<17>. We additionally drew upon a broad selection of work-related in the area of complex conflict dynamics and the dynamics that rebellions and political uprisings.<18>

The U.S. Defense modeling and simulation ar has a great deal of specialization in kinetics. We attracted heavily top top this field of expertise for the parts of ours model managing kinetics.<19> Although over there is in ~ the defense ar only a nascent ability in computational modeling of the sociocultural domain,<20> over there is even less task in the integration that the sociocultural v the kinetic domain. Therefore, our conversation here concentrates primarily top top the sociocultural aspects of our model, v a summary of the integration the this dimension with the kinetic. 

What follows is a summary of the structure of a model. The actors and also relationships the we explain here will type the communication of executable code that will allow decision makers to perform certain types of analysis. 

An Overview

This section offers a high-level summary of the actors, their relationships and associated social dynamics in our model. Later in the discussion, we shall intricate on every the terms presented here.

In any type of COIN environment, there room three sets of actors. They are the established regime (which has the host country and those sustaining the regime), insurgents (in a share COIN sense, those fighting the developed regime, which can include members the the local population as well as global supporters), and also the regional population. These three sets room collections of independently acting individuals. However, the established regime and also the insurgents can also act together independent gibbs (hereafter referred to as collectivities), return the local populace cannot. We devote most of this document to an elaboration the the local populace since COIN doctrine claims that the is the center of heaviness in a counterinsurgency effort.<21>

The dynamics begin with a member that the local populace assessing just how well turn off he<22> is in relation to others in his social room (i.e., his relative deprivation). He repurchase a belief around who is responsible for his perceived condition and who caused human being he cares around to come to harm. This is expressed together his stance. He has some inherent risk attitude which will constrain the species of action he is ready to take to boost his condition.<23> together actions may incorporate both social actions (such together joining teams of miscellaneous types) and also kinetic plot (such together making and detonating IEDs). His loved one deprivation, linked with his stance, creates his grievance, i m sorry is a surrogate for that he blames for his condition, while his risk attitude conditions what that is ready to do about it. We sophisticated upon every these state later.

Members that the local population create homophilitic connections, i.e. Connections based upon like-ness, with various other members the the regional population. (We define homophily in much greater detail later.) each member considers his homophilitic partnership with various other members the the population in regards to both status and values. Connections based on homophily in status and also values type horizontal networks which, in turn, bring about the appearance of dynamic, informal groups. 

Each emergent dynamic group develops a persona which is a duty of the relative deprivation, stance and risk perspective of all the group’s members. The persona thus transforms over time as group membership alters – and, in turn, problems who would be likely to join.

Certain emergent group varieties require seed sources in order to coalesce. This seed resources have the right to be either endogenous to the local population, or provided to its members from exogenous sources, i.e. The created regime and also insurgents. Exogenous provision of these resources could be used to develop patron-client networks.<24>

Patron-client networks room vertical networks which produce a stress and anxiety with the horizontal networks produced by connections based on homophily. Furthermore, exchanges between patrons and clients space asynchronous, so the relationship exist over time, uneven the horizontal connections produced through homophilitic connections which are synchronous and degrade quickly. 

The asynchronosity and also other aspects of patron-client networks (which us delineate later) enable those networks to contend for certain aspects that legitimacy with the an ext formal institutional frameworks of i beg your pardon regimes consist. Therefore, exogenous resource provision can have an influence on who the local population supports and the channels through i m sorry that assistance is given, in ways that might be quite unexpected (and probably unwelcome) to the donor.

As these various species of link within the local populace are formed and dissolved, the insurgents and also the established regime space imposing damage on the local populace in the kind of arrests, kidnappings, killings and the like. They are additionally providing services to that same populace in the form of cash or various other benefits, as explained by the U.S. In various discussions of security operations.<25> (These form the basis of the patron-client relationships explained above.) Additionally, insurgents and also the created regime interact in combat operations against each other. In our model, that combat has use of IEDs and also direct fire engagements.

For simplicity, births, immigration, emigration or various other endogenous mechanisms of adjust in the local population are not contained in ours formulation. However, details members the the insurgent group and also the developed regime are replaced at one exogenously established rate to enable for replacements because that combat losses. 

The following sections collection out one elaboration upon the terms and also dynamics presented above.


We begin with the 3 sets of gibbs in the COIN environment. We specify them as mutually to exclude, high-level actors that exist in both social and also geo-physical space. This actors (as presented earlier) room the developed regime, the insurgents, and also the regional population. The created regime’s score is come reduce overall violence and also to reduce the variety of members that the local population who join insurgent-affiliated groups. The insurgents’ goal is come inflict together much damage as feasible on the developed regime and to rise the number of members the the local populace who sign up with insurgent-affiliated groups. The local population is the ‘prize’ in any insurgency environment and also is the target of actions by the developed regime and also the insurgents.<26> The local population presents a shifting landscape of informal teams that form and reform based on social connections created by members as the latter shot to accomplish various goals. The created regime and insurgents compete for the allegiance of the regional population, allegiance to express in our design by certain actions take away by the local population. 

Insurgents and the developed regime are two set of actors, and also are teams of a different kind than the local population. As stated previously, insurgents and the created regime, as collectivities, can act as independent actors, back (as we shall watch later) your scope of action is reasonably limited. That is, the developed regime qua established regime can ‘do something’; that can role as a collectivity. The neighborhood population, ~ above the other hand, does no act as a collectivity, although groups composed that members through the very same job, such as ‘army,’ ‘police,’ ‘farmer,’ and also ‘insurgent,’ may function as collectivities.

Individual insurgents and also members that the developed regime each organize mutually exclusive jobs such as bomb maker or patrol. Shared exclusivity method that, so lengthy as a provided individual hold one job, he cannot organize another. Members of the neighborhood population, on the various other hand, deserve to hold number of jobs and belong to several groups simultaneously, i m sorry may enable us to represent, because that example, the ‘good male by day, poor guy by night’ phenomenon. We for this reason lay the foundation for a rich social environment for the neighborhood population, the target the IW/COIN campaigns, and we define the insurgents and also the developed regime in reasonably simple useful terms.

Members of the local population can simultaneously run in up to four different social domains: employment, religious, civic, and political. We believe these four domains provide a sufficiently diverse social environment for this model. The religious, civil and also political domains correspond to sets of emergent teams (discussed later) which are identified by purpose. The employment domain is more subdivided right into varied job functions (hereafter, described for simplicity together ‘jobs’) ranging from ‘merchant’ come ‘insurgent’. Each of this functions, in turn, has certain actions linked with it. Each job can act as a collectivity (that is, as a society actor in its very own right), yet the people within the collectivity can also take actions independently of every other and of the collectivity. Of details interest to united state is the insurgent job, as one of the actions that a member that the local population can take it in this project is to end up being an IED emplacer and support those respond to to the created regime. Actions for the other tasks are treated abstractly as ‘provide costs/benefits.’ Finally, groups will emerge and recede together a consequence of interactions amongst members that the neighborhood population. 

These actors are depicted in figure 1 and also described in much more detail below.


Figure 1: Actors


Members the the insurgent team can have one the three different jobs. First, they have the right to be IED emplacers, in which situation their possible actions are to discover a cache, acquire an IED, emplace one IED, eight an IED, trigger an IED, and perform battle damage evaluate (BDA). Secondly, they deserve to be bomb-makers, in which situation their feasible actions space to locate a cache, make an IED and also to relocate to a new cache if necessary. And finally, over there is one ‘advocate’ job. Advocates administer benefits to other actors, and impose prices on actors in terms of killing, injuring, or kidnapping them. (Note the actors might make ‘mistakes’ and impose costs on members that their own side or offer benefits come those protest to them.) We have actually left benefits abstract in the model, yet examples that benefits can be food and medical treatment for members that the regional population. We execute not specify price or benefit types because the kind is not relevant to model dynamics. As a collectivity, insurgents can also administer resources come other teams or individuals. Therefore, from the perspective of the regional population, insurgents may be perceived positively, negatively, or both.

If IED emplacers and also bomb-makers are found by the developed regime, the created regime will certainly attempt come engage. If insurgents are gotten rid of from the battlefield together a result of kinetic engagement through the created regime, they will certainly be replaced at an exogenously determined rate. 

The established regime

As pointed out earlier, the established regime deserve to act as a collectivity and have both a optimistic and negative aspect as viewed by every individual member the the regional population. Similar to the insurgents, the developed regime as a team can administer resources to teams or to individual members of the local population. Members the the developed regime can have one of two jobs: (1) patrol and (2) advocate. The patrol job has not simply patrolling but likewise executing a convoy mission by relocating in concert with other patrols, executing a called operations mission which involves moving to and destroying a cache, or performing BDA after being assaulted with an IED. An established regime support will carry out benefits to and also impose costs upon individual members of the local population. Similar to the insurgents, expenses may encompass arrest, injury or death, and also benefits space unspecified. Additionally, if actors in a patrol job are killed by insurgents, lock are changed at one exogenously identified rate, since, as with the insurgents, us assume that the created regime would certainly sustain its pressure levels through reinforcements.

Local population

The local populace is the most complicated set of actors in ours model, although the does not act as a collectivity per se. (The local population qua local populace cannot ‘do’ anything.) This section specifies several terms which assist us delineate the local population. These terms individuate members that the neighborhood population, and establish ethics for the dynamics whereby they will interact. 

We will very first discuss just how members of the local population define their social identity (defined later on in this section) through combinations of qualities which space assigned assorted weights. We then will explain the social dynamic of homophily. Homophily defines how individuals type social relations by assessing their similarity (likeness) follow to assorted attributes. Once these relations are established, individuals then compare themselves come those v whom castle are associated to identify their relative deprivation. They likewise develop one assignment of blame because that their relative deprivation, one assignment we contact a stance. Their family member deprivation combined with their stance (how badly off they believe they are relative to others and who castle think is to blame because that that) returns their grievance. Members that the local population are further individuated by your risk attitude. (We will define risk perspective later in this section.) one individual’s grievance linked with his risk perspective will tell us what varieties of activities he would certainly be willing to engage in – whether he would be pro- or anti-established regime, for example, and if he would certainly be likely to communicate in kinetic tasks (e.g. Detonating one IED) or less violent (and thus presumably much less risky) activities, such as giving information.

Defining social identity

Recall that in our model, the local populace cannot act together a collectivity, unlike the insurgents and also the established regime. Also, unequal members the the insurgents and the created regime which, other than with respect to your jobs, represent homogeneous groups, each local populace member has attributes. The worths assigned come those characteristics contribute come the individuation that the member’s actions. Each member is also assigned a ability or capability. Planting ~ above a farm, do a bomb, or purchasing food are examples of skills. We will discuss qualities here, and also return to skills in a later section on emergent groups. 

We have figured out eight attributes connected with local populace members: ethnicity, tribal affiliation, religion, nationality, gender, marital status, age cohort, and also wealth. We think these attributes carry out us the flexibility to stand for a well-off social environment throughout time and space. Worths for these eight characteristics are specified for every member that the neighborhood population. Values and weights for each attribute room determined based upon the area the interest. (For example, in one area in Afghanistan, the ‘ethnicity’ attribute may have six or seven various values and be weighted less than the people attribute in various other areas.) Permitting various combinations of load attributes enables for production of a culturally appropriate and relevant population. Setup specific worths for attributes and also weightings typical that our culture-general principles are instantiated as a model specific to a society located in time and space.<27>

Exercising Homophily

Within any social landscape, human being tend to connect with others that are favor them, although ‘like’ have the right to be identified in a selection of time-, space- and culturally-dependent ways. Analytically, this ‘likeness’ build is termed homophily. Local population members use their features to identify their degree of homophily. We usage a more nuanced an interpretation of homophily 보다 is usually discovered in the computational society modeling literature,<28> together we return to the seminal an interpretation of homophily.<29>

Lazarsfeld and Merton characterized two different species of homophily. Status homophily refers to “observed tendencies because that similarity between the group-affiliation of friend or in between their positions within a group”<30> or similarity in structure position.<31> We use wealth, marital status, age cohort and gender qualities as mite of one actor’s social structural position. People with who one has actually high condition homophily might become component of one’s condition network. Value homophily refers to “observed tendencies in the direction of correspondence in the worths ”<32> or similarity in values. We usage the ethnicity, defect affiliation, religion and nationality features as signs of swarm of values. People with whom one has actually high worth homophily might become component of one’s worth network. Therefore, our members that the local population have four status-defining and four value-defining attributes, whereby each attribute has actually some collection of in your ar determined interpretations from i m sorry assignments come actors room made. Members of the local population can be like one an additional in the they occupy similar positions in the society structure, or they have the right to be like one an additional because that a post in values. This distinction is vital because the social after-effects of status homophily differ considerably from those of worth homophily.

The social after-effects of status and also value homophily are defined by recommendation to 2 theoretical traditions. Condition homophily paint, etc on identification theory, while value homophily traction from social identity theory. 

Identity theory<33> argues that an individual defines his ‘self’ in terms of exactly how well he fulfills expectation of the assorted social duties from i m sorry he might choose.<34> A social duty is a collection of expectation prescribing habits that is considered ideal by others. This method thus posits a an interpretation of me in regards to others’ (or society’s) behavioral expectations. The complete collection of these expectations in a given time and place is a summary of social structure. 

Social identification theory, on the other hand, focuses on the method in which social categories provide definitions the self and so affect values and also attitudes.<35> It focuses on intergroup interaction, arguing that people act as, and also are viewed as, representatives of a details group fairly than as unique selves.<36>

Social identity theory additionally addresses the procedure of identification with groups, consisting of the formation of stereotypes, the confident valuation the in-group behavior and also the an adverse valuation of out-group behavior. Social identity theory thus has actually a normative dimension. Identification theory, however, is structural and descriptive. It concentrates on descriptions of the functions themselves and also their manifestation v behavior and also does no assign confident or negative value come those roles. Because that this reason, the form of self-identification defined by social identity theory (self-identification together a member the a group) is more likely to cause inter-group conflict than is the form of identification emerged through role behaviors. In social identity theory, in-group and also out-group behaviors end up being prototyped, stereotyped, and valued. In identification theory, in contrast, the primary dissonance is between individuals who execute not agree on duty expectations. This might lead come intra-group problem as us see through (for example) the expression of various expectations because that female behavior in some Muslim cultures. This differentiation that status and also value homophily permits us come represent much more accurately the methods in i m sorry members the the local population interact, and also the impact of those interaction on individuals’ feeling of family member deprivation (derived indigenous status-homophilitic interactions) or stance (acquired v value-homophilitic interactions), as described in much more detail below.

Relative deprivation

An separation, personal, instance will connect with those with whom he has actually high standing homophily (i.e., v those in his standing network). V this engagement, the gains information about his own social condition or high quality of life loved one to those in his standing network. This allows him to determine what is dubbed his family member deprivation.<37> Thus, an separation, personal, instance compares himself to others, not to an target standard, in order to identify his satisfaction. Initiatives by individuals or teams to exactly feelings of loved one deprivation that emerge from the to compare of oneself to others are likely to result in social strife or to wake up the increase of large social movements.<38>,<39>,<40> once these awareness of loved one deprivation are combined with perspectives of ‘blame’ because that that loved one deprivation (which we attend to in the next section ~ above stance), the possibility of social unrest increases.


A stance, together we usage it in our model, is one expression through an individual of whether or not he stop some details group responsible for his condition (be it an excellent or bad). Stance is distinguished from relative deprivation; the latter is one individual’s evaluate of his condition. A member that the local population will consider what that knows about the imposition that costs and also benefits from assorted actors on his worth network when determining his stance. His view will differ over time based upon the stances the those with whom the engages and also of the groups to which that belongs. (We will discuss how groups build stances later.) because stances stand for the assignment the a confident or negative value come the team perceived to it is in responsible because that his condition, they room an expression the social identification as unique from identification (recall the earlier discussion on social identity theory and identity theory), and thus room a role of member in a value network.


The combination of an actor’s loved one deprivation and also his stance will yield his grievance level. One actor’s grievance is a surrogate for exactly how much the cares about his case (his loved one deprivation) merged with an assignment of obligation identifying whom he thinks is responsible because that his case (his stance). Number 2illustrates this. This formulation enables us to avoid the now-discounted concept that deprivation alone (whether it be pure or relative) leads to violent activity.<41>



Figure 2: conceptual model for determining grievance

Risk attitude

An separation, personal, instance actor’s level of grievance will determine how difficult he is willing to job-related to impact his situation. The types of activity in which the is ready to communicate will be determined by his danger attitude.<42> Risk attitude describes decision making end quantifiable choices under conditions of uncertainty. The classic technique to risk attitude evaluates the behavior of an separation, personal, instance when confronted with choices between outcomes quantified in probabilistic terms.<43>

Canonical supposed utility theory<44> assumes the all people will use the very same formula to calculation the riskiness the a given decision, and that a provided individual’s risk perspective is no decision-dependent.<45> Therefore, because that a offered individual, risk mindset will remain consistent from one decision to the next. <46> over there are, however, distinctions in risk mindset between one individual and also another, with the distribution favoring the risk-avoidant end of one objectively established scale. Evidence from the literature shows that many individuals present a concave risk function,<47> the is, they are risk-seeking over tiny stakes and risk-avoiding over large stakes.<48> evidence from neuroeconomics research is currently showing that there also is a significant affective ingredient to what had historically been considered a purely cognitive process. <49>

Our actors challenge decisions that a fairly limited kind and their time frame and social context are very constrained. Therefore, us feel comfortable in discounting the constructivist technique for this application, in which different responses come the very same decision space a duty of factors far more complicated than simply risk attitude.<50> We as such have randomly assigned each member of the local populace a risk mindset which is unchanging end time, audit for the affective ingredient by the advent of part randomness. We additionally skew the assignment curve to stand for a population concavely it was crooked in the direction of risk aversion.

The local population summarized

During his communication with various other actors in his geographic and social space, a member that the local populace acquires information about his environment. He supplies this info to recognize his condition relative come others. This ‘condition’ has actually two dimensions. One is his basic welfare, which we characterize together ‘relative deprivation’ and also which is actually determined relatively, not absolutely. As defined earlier, this is established based ~ above a to compare of himself with others in his status network, wherein his condition network is defined by condition homophily. The other measurement of his problem is his attitude towards miscellaneous collectivities (e.g. Insurgents or the established regime). We contact this his stance, interpreted to be his mindset towards those who he thinks ‘are responsible’ for his family member deprivation. Together this stance reflects values and attitudes, the is conditioned by members of his value network, defined by value homophily. 

The mix of the actor’s viewed relative deprivation and also his stance generate his grievance towards various collective actors, a surrogate for the level of task in which he is ready to engage. His risk attitude tells us in what varieties of task he is ready to engage. An individual with high grievance and also high danger aversion might be willing to work an extremely hard to assistance the developed regime (if he has actually a pro-established regime or anti-insurgent stance), but may not be willing to perform it in ways that put himself in far-ranging harm’s way. Because that example, he can be ready to provide information secretly however not to end up being a policeman. Number 3 summarizes this progression to action on the component of an individual member of the neighborhood population.



Figure 3: progression to action- regional population

Consequences of social dynamics: emergent groups

A an essential outcome the interactions amongst the members of the local population is the appearance of emergent groups. This collectivities may type and dissolve really quickly, creating a moving yet significant social landscape. Our conversation of emergent teams will show, amongst other things, exactly how social memory have the right to be important, how teams which kind around vital individuals deserve to or cannot influence the circulation of resources and also influence v a population, and what the consequent impact is ~ above grievances.

Emergent groups are collections of members the the neighborhood population. Every collection has actually a purpose and performs activities that aid it fulfill that purpose. For example, an emergent group may have as its function to administer security for a neighborhood. Associated tasks might be acquiring weapons, shooting in ~ intruders, patrolling, and the like. Each activity requires a certain set of skills which are listed to the arsenal by that is members. Recall the each populace member has a set of skills. An abilities exist within the group in a Hayekian sense<51>: if one member of one emergent group has a important skill, climate the group has that vital skill. 

We basic our build of emergent groups on Robert Axtell’s model of firms,<52> v some modification of his early stage assumptions. Favor Axtell, we assume an emergent group (in Axtell’s terms, a firm) is a collection of individuals who are encouraged (working) to change the status quo. We believe this is as applicable to the socio-political domain as it is to the economic domain because, for example, one way of characterizing insurgent teams is as firms whose product is violence.<53>

We represent three unique emergent group types that members of the local population may choose to join. Each type provides benefit or welfare in different ways to that members. The groups are together follows: 1) decreasing returns to scale groups wherein the addition of an individual decreases the benefit or welfare created per unit of job (for example, typical pool resources like water or grazing floor may become stretched an ext thinly by the addition of brand-new group members); 2) constant returns to scale groups, whereby the enhancement of one individual has no impact on the lot of advantage or welfare produced per unit of labor (as may be the case with religious, social or ideology system groups); and 3) increasing returns to range groups wherein the enhancement of an individual boosts the amount of advantage or welfare created per unit job (think the a traditional western economic group or firm, where adding an individual with some distinct skill can substantially enhance others’ productivity).<54>

Members of the local population join emergent groups and devote their minimal time come engaging in the activities of the emergent groups of i beg your pardon they are a part in bespeak to enhance welfare. The lot of welfare a group member derives indigenous his actions together a member of the emergent group is a function of two things: the as whole size that the group and also how lot the member’s endogenous skill collection is valued through the group. Members through high value skills (i.e. An abilities that are scarce however essential) receive much more welfare 보다 members with low value skills.<55> continual with Axtell, brand-new increasing returns emergent teams can be started by anyone; however, in our construct these people must have gathered welfare or be sponsor to do so. Sources to begin a brand-new increasing returns team may also come from a resource exogenous come the regional population, i.e. The developed regime or the insurgents. 

Members of the local populace learn around emergent groups by interacting with members the their status networks. A member the the local population will check the emergent team memberships the the members of his condition network. He climate checks the emergent group’s hazard attitude and also stance (the group’s hazard attitude and stance room a duty of those of every one of its members) and, if that is compatible v his own, he can join. He additionally will evaluate the riskiness of working out his certain skill in the execution of the group’s tasks based top top its history over some time period. Us approximate his incomplete information and possibly suboptimal decisions by bestowing bounded rationality top top the neighborhood population.<56>

A brand-new emergent team reflects the starting member’s stance and also his risk attitude, as he is the just member. As new members join, their stance and risk perspective modify the stance and risk perspective of the group (its persona). As a result, in time the older members might leave the group if the stance and/or risk mindset of the group moves too much away from their own. Furthermore, as the risk perspective changes, the varieties of tasks in which the team will engage additionally will change (e.g. A team may move much more towards violent activities as its hazard aversion decreases). That is also possible that an actor will certainly re-join an emergent team he previously left as it moves back towards his own risk attitude and stance. The is activity in the unlimited social dance.

Emergent teams will go ‘dormant’ if they have no members. Dormant groups still exist in the society memory, holding the threat attitude and also stance they had at the moment they went dormant. Such teams can be revived if actors’ stance and risk mindset match v the dormant emergent group’s ‘remembered’ attitudes. This feature permits us come account because that the power of history/myth. 

New raising returns to scale teams require an investment which might or may not come native the founding member (i.e. It can come from an exogenous resource such together the created regime or the insurgents). If the early investment originates from the created regime or the insurgents, the founding member that the team is the initial recipient of those resources. That then offers those sources to start raising returns emergent team or a patron-client network, i m sorry we explain in the following section. 

The persona that a brand-new increasing returns group (unlike to decrease or continuous returns groups) is a role of the threat attitude and stance of both the source of sources (which may be exogenous) and the new increasing returns group starting member. If the establishing member is additionally the resource provider, his threat attitude and also stance alone create the group’s persona. As the group gets larger and also as time progresses from once the group was founded, the founder’s influence will wane. Eventually, the character of the emergent group may diverge sufficiently from the of the founder that the group severs the tie through the founder.

We have shown the relationships and also dependencies that create emergent teams in figure 4.


Figure 4: involvement a group

Patron-client relationships

The emergent groups explained in the previous section are groups based on horizontal connections – they space peer-to-peer groups, where a member the the local populace makes a decision even if it is or not to join based upon interactions through his peers with exploitation the homophilitic connections. However, there are other types of relationship based upon differences in strength (asymmetries) rather than on similarities of characteristics in a team of equals. Of interest to us right here is the patron-client relationship.

The consist of of emergent group dynamics allows us to resolve the special situation where sources are noted by a resource exogenous to the local population. A patron, through definition, offers a bridging role for his client to resources to i m sorry the client otherwise would not have access. We will specify this in greater information later – but we note below that this source could be (but is not necessarily) ‘international’ in nature. This permits us to check out the influence of picking a specific recipient of resources detailed by (e.g.) the established regime to the neighborhood population. Us note particularly that the success or fail of boosting returns group will be extremely dependent ~ above the attributes of the separation, personal, instance to who the resources are at first given, as the group’s immediate and also distant future space conditioned by the establishing member’s horizontal (homophilitic) relationships. This says that the choice of the receiver of these resources in the COIN atmosphere may indeed be important,<57> together the recipient may start boosting returns team that is embedded in the existing society structure, or rather start a patron-client network that might potentially complete with the existing power structure.

Patron-client relationships have tendency to emerge in social environments in which not all participants have equal accessibility to crucial social resources. These societies are often identified by far-reaching power differentials, in practice usually a solid center and also a weak periphery.<58> Patrons regularly perform a bridging role between an effective and outwardly focused organizations (e.g., a central government) and local, less an effective individuals often found at the periphery of states. 

Patron-client relationships, in our intended sense, are typified by the following characteristics.<59>,<60>,<61>,<62> Patron-client ties space relationships between inherently unequal individuals (not groups) . One member that the dyad is always more powerful than the other. This relationships room mechanisms come facilitate exchange, thus they count upon reciprocity. The said, the nature the the point (whether it be something concrete or an ext abstract favor money or favors) the flows up the dyad is usually various in sort from the which operation down. Although their locally identified value is roughly equal,<63> the exchange is asynchronous. The relationships are extra-legal if no illegal. If extra-legal, they are normally ignored fairly than negatively sanctioned by the formal legal system. Patron-client relationship often arise in times of society disturbance, although this is not the only time we see them.<64> Patron-client relationships room usually gotten in into voluntarily, although there is often far-ranging social push for people to enter into them, and there are strong social sanctions for violating the regional norms about entering, engaging in, and exiting together relationships. 

The asynchronous nature of the exchanges is critical characteristic that the relationship. That is feasible that generations will pass prior to the exchange is completed.<65> This asynchronicity develops solidarity over time between the receiver and the giver, a solidarity based on trust. Marcel Mauss dubbed this a kind of generalised exchange.<66>,<67> He explained it in terms of presents (e.g., I give you a birthday gift and also I have established an duty on your component to reciprocate at some time in the future), but generalized exchange describes many other varieties of exchange such together returning favors.<68> In addition to solidarity, the concept of asynchronicity gives an historical depth that is lacking in a transaction-based system. 

The primary solid connection in a patronage connection is a upright one, for this reason patronage networks have the potential to challenge, weaken or complement the stamin of horizontal or peer-to-peer relationships.<69> our emergent raising returns groups lie in ~ the nexus the vertically characterized patronage networks and horizontally defined groups, such as status and value networks. Expect the insurgents or the established regime offer resources to an individual. The resource recipient deserve to then develop a patronage network through disbursing the resources, offer a bridging role between the larger human being of the insurgents and also the created regime and also the much more circumscribed world of the neighborhood population. However, as soon as those sources ‘hit the streets,’ horizontal ties may draw peers the the client into the group. This would certainly then create an emergent group, diluting the influence of the patron and his sponsors. Consisting of patron-client relationships in our model hence introduces a crucial tension in between the vertical ties generated by strength differentials and the horizontal ties engendered by homophily. This anxiety illuminates the aftermath of a an important COIN activity – the disbursement of resources to a regional population. 

Power and legitimacy

The patron-client connection with its solid social penalty in cases of violation introduce notions the power and also legitimacy. The is precious taking part time to check out this principle as legitimacy because that a regime<70> is the end game the IW/COIN. Furthermore, power (which have the right to be exercised through the disbursement of benefits and coercion) is often puzzled with legitimacy, although they room qualitatively different concepts.<71>

Power is a mechanism to shape the behavior of others. That is exercised either by threaten or making use of coercion to deter or readjust undesired behavior or by promising rewards to promote desired actions (i.e. To engender satisfaction).<72> This is an crucial or conditional way of social manage (‘if I perform this, climate you will execute that’)<73> and also is a function of the amount of coercion exerted and also the services provided. 

Power, which results from the combined exercise of coercion and also reward, generates compliance with certain authorities (people) or specific directives issued by the regime.<74> It for this reason is particularistic as it is support for a specific action or a specific person, not for an institution or a system of federal government (i.e. Regime). 

Instrumental power of the type we just explained is a an extremely expensive way of social control since of the facet of forced or services provision.<75> Coercion and the provision of benefits are socially expensive as they call for the investment in people who can continuously screen behavior and apply either confident or an unfavorable pressure come induce compliance anytime necessary. Achieving legitimacy is another means in i beg your pardon regimes deserve to exercise society control, in this case without the risk of coercion or the promise the rewards.<76>

Legitimacy is often characterized as a function of measures that are perceived to it is in fair, where “fair” is defined by the target population.<77> There are three important elements to this definition. First, it is critical to identify that legitimacy is the duty of a populace’s perception of a regime, not of characteristics of the regime itself. Second, the entity which has actually legitimacy is a procedure or set of procedures, regularly embodied in organizations which themselves may be accumulated into regimes. And third, the focus is on procedure credibility or fairness. 

Thus the end game that a COIN or insurgency procedure is the establishment of the legitimacy that the routine that each participant supports. Establishment of legitimacy needs the shaping that the perceptions of the population. Changing the regime might be vital to develop legitimacy however will no necessarily it is in sufficient. Legitimacy cannot be legislated or decreed and also may arise in unplanned ways. For example, previously we introduced an informal power structure constructed about the patron-client relationship. We emphasized the this partnership is typically extra-legal if not illegal, yet carries solid social sanctions in instances of violation. We likewise pointed out that the asynchronicity imbues the connection with historical depth that allows for the assessment of the procedure over time. In this way, a patron-client network (patrons v their number of clients) can be viewed to have ‘legitimacy’ in plenty of of the same ways as a governmental structure. Together such, it have to be explicitly taken into consideration in the COIN environment.

Kinetic activity

In our earlier description of the insurgents and also the created regime, we said that they could both impose expenses and administer benefits. By introducing notions of cost and also benefits, we introduced a id of power. Recall also that IW (and COIN as a particular kind of IW) is “a violent struggle because that legitimacy and also influence over the pertinent population”<78> (emphasis added). A design of the COIN setting is hence incomplete without consideration of the exercise of power v violence.

Our main actors in the kinetic domain room the insurgents and also the created regime. The local population engages as among the targets that the kinetic actions, together a participant through the insurgent job or work with the created regime, and as a provider of details to the insurgents and/or the established regime (see figure 1). Thus, although the local populace is the ‘prize’ of a COIN operation, it additionally can it is in an active participant sustaining either player in the COIN struggle or can end up being a target or collateral damage.

The violent activities we stand for center around the employed of IEDs and also direct fire weapons. We interpreted the IED process to indicate bomb-makers and emplacers. Members the the local population who join the job team ‘insurgents’ also can choose to come to be emplacers if your level of hazard aversion is short enough. If their hazard aversion is high but their anti-established routine stance is strong, members that the local populace can interact in details gathering tasks for the insurgents instead of becoming emplacers. 

The IEDs are emplaced along routes traveled by the established regime. Members the the created regime patrol, or travel in convoys, both of which are breakable to IEDs. They additionally perform operations come find and defuse IEDs. 

The interaction in between members the the developed regime and insurgents will affect the number of IEDs that are actually emplaced and so detonated. Members the the local population can influence the number of IEDs emplaced by offering information come insurgents or to the developed regime. Info provision actions will certainly be take away by individuals who room (for example) donate of the developed regime however with a danger aversion high sufficient to preclude them from taking work such as army, police, or government.

If one IED explodes, everyone (local population included) within the blast radius is a potential victim. Both the insurgents and the created regime collection information about each IED occasion in a ‘corporate’ memory; this allows the insurgents to adapt their tasks to the regime, and also vice versa.<79>

Civilian deaths and also injuries native IEDs and other prices are recognized as negative actions by the victim’s value network, leading to its members to adjust their stance negatively in the direction of the perpetrator. A readjust towards a more negative stance likewise will readjust grievance levels and also therefore the actions actors space willing to take. (Note the the individual’s risk attitude does not change.) whereas if a team bestows benefits on another group or on one individual, the group’s or individual’s view will readjust positively. Number 5 illustrates the readjust in an individual’s propensity for violent action.

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Figure 5: change in propensity for violent action


This formulation is critical first action in the breakthrough of a theoretically base simulation of the COIN environment. The socially rich environment we have articulated here permits us to account for assorted phenomena that have contributed to the ‘messiness’ and challenge of prosecuting rarely often rare wars, including the link between social interaction and also kinetic behavior. It permits us, for example, to account because that the ‘accidental guerrilla’<80> – the individual who has actually no particular ideological stance however who reacts to really locally enforced costs and who looks toward some insurgent team to help attend to his loved one deprivation (i.e., administer financial incentive, other financial opportunity, or other benefit). While economic deprivation is arguably not the major motive for all insurgents, us must allow this together a possibility. We additionally account for the ‘good guy by day, poor guy by night’ phenomenon that often characterizes the COIN environment. A member of the local population may belonging to several emergent groups as each offers him v a different or extr benefit. Due to the fact that he deserve to belong to numerous emergent teams simultaneously, he have the right to hold what might appear to it is in contradictory beliefs simultaneously (e.g. Pro-established regime, pro-insurgents). As a result, we are able to identify (to some first order) amongst behaviors that might look the same however be driven by different motivations. Our inclusion that the patron-client dynamic along with the dynamics that emergent groups shows how an initial circulation of resources can affect their ultimate disposition, and stimulate the introduction of legit social structures. Finally, the interdependence between the kinetic and also socio-cultural dimensions, which us have depicted with ours preliminary results, display that it is possible to represent these dynamics v potentially valuable results for planners and also decision-makers.

We are confident that this approach to presenting and also manipulating the intersection between the kinetic and socio-cultural domain names will administer strategic-level decision makers and planners with a far better understanding of how to achieve strategic purposes such as the advancement of legitimacy. We likewise believe it may aid on the work level, illuminating such phenomena as counter-government habits driven both by ideology too as more instrumental components such as local power struggles or gaue won needs. Ultimately, we are experimenting the interdependent relationship between social and kinetic work in the COIN environment. We have conceptualized that partnership as a proxy, to some degree, for the relationship between legitimacy and power, recognizing legitimacy together the wanted end state the a COIN operation.